2021 Year-End Thoughts
I’m writing this with three days left in 2021, looking back on this past year and looking forward to 2022. I have some thoughts to share with you, in no particular order.
read moreLifeboat Drills (Version 2021)
Long-term clients and readers of this newsletter will recall my occasional discussions of “LifeBoat Drills.” Unlike when you board a cruise ship and learn what to do in case of emergency, my LifeBoat Drills focus on what not to do in case of a market emergency.
read moreAfraid of New Highs?
In an earlier post I talked about one of the media narratives that prices are too high to remain optimistic about the market. And now the market's even higher, so now the scenario may seem even more foreboding. Before I suggested three considerations in response to possible fears. Let's expand on those considerations here.
read moreBe Wary of Election Year Narratives
Clearly election season is upon us. How do we know that? Well, of course the Democrats are debating and campaigning in order to secure a presidential nominee. Also, President Trump’s rallies are occurring more frequently in swing states. These are the obvious cues. There are also less obvious cues.
read moreWhat’s not important now? What is?
Market volatility has once again made headlines. What's important to know and understand?
read moreWhat Resonates with You?
The investment philosophy of our Serious Money Approach rests upon 3 key principles: Faith in the Future Problems get solved even if we can’t predict how it will happen. Patience Problems get solved even if we can’t predict when it will happen. Discipline Doing what almost always works and not trying something that hasn’t. I want to illustrate how the three principles work together to form our unifying approach to investing. The first part of the illustration involves a bit of work on your part: think of a recent news events...
read moreIs the market just like a casino?
With the market enjoying a significant rally for the past two months following a big downturn in the market at the beginning of the year, I’m reminded of a statement made to me years ago by a worried investor: “The market is just a big gamble, like a casino.” It is true that the market can gyrate up and down, and it is true that the movements can appear to be random, and it is also true that we tend to remember our losses more than our gains. However, I want to explain (just as I did to the worried investor years ago) why the stock...
read moreThe Market Rebounds: Is the correction over?
You may remember how the market began 2016. I used the word “dreary” in my newsletter of January 16, 2016. It is now two months later and we are witnessing a big rebound in the market, such that, as I write, the market has erased its entire negative performance for the year and we are now in positive territory for 2016. I ended my January newsletter with three lessons that I have learned during my 35 years as a financial advisor, lessons that I am pleased to repeat. First, corrections and Bear Markets do end; Second, declines are...
read moreThe Correction (and Progress!) Continues
Last month’s newsletter explained that the market is currently in a correction mode. Since then, the market has been up, then down, and up again. There is no good way to determine whether the correction is now over, and until we can be sure, let’s assume that the correction is continuing. In January I attended the third Abundance360 conference in Los Angeles. The room was packed with entrepreneurs who are creating the future—literally–with their software, hardware, and new exponential technologies. It is difficult to leave the...
read moreLet’s talk about this correction…
As I write this on January 19, 2016, the stock market ended 2015 and began 2016 on a dreary note, declining 10-12% in value. This is a market correction, the type of market condition that I’ve written about in several recent newsletters and in my 2013 book, The Serious Money Train (from which I will take the liberty of quoting freely). At this point in the cycle, we don’t yet know if this correction will remain a correction or decline further and become a full-fledged Bear Market. If you think of your lifetime investing journey as a...
read more